Passkey Adoption Simulation

Operating System Distribution

Total Share: 100.0%
Operating System
OS Share %
Readiness %
Activation Rate %
Ready × Active
Windows 11
29.8%
Windows 10
19.3%
MacOS
49.5%
iOS
71.3%
Android
66.5%
Passkey Ready Rate (%):
User Activation Rate (%):
Login approach:

Login Frequency Distribution

(% of logins of a year in this group)

Current Total: 100.0%
Frequency
Distribution %
Activation %
% of Logins
1 login/year
5.4%
2 logins/year
6.1%
3-5 logins/year
18.0%
6-10 logins/year
22.4%
11-20 logins/year
24.6%
21-50 logins/year
20.0%
50+ logins/year
3.5%
Total annual logins per 100 users: 558.1

Results (Months)



Final passkey adoption login rate: 47.5%

Explanation:

This final adoption rate is determined by three main factors:

  1. Passkey Readiness Rate – The percentage of users whose devices support passkeys.
  2. User Activation Rate – Of those passkey-ready users, how many actually create a passkey once prompted.
  3. Usage Rate – Even if a user has a passkey, they still need to choose to use it. The Login Approach you select sets the probability that a passkey is chosen at each login instead of a password.

Mathematically, you can think of the final rate as roughly:
(Passkey Readiness) × (User Activation) × (Usage Probability)

Which translates to the proportion of your overall user base that not only can use passkeys, but also decides to create one and continues to use it regularly.

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